BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 25 May 2026 19:41:43 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 251941 SWODY1 SPC AC 251939 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies. Severe probabilities were reduced over parts of eastern MS and western AL where widespread precipitation is limiting destabilization. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the ongoing outlook. ..Hart.. 05/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/ ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores. ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast... A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall severe risk. ...Northern Rockies... An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity. ...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas... An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened. ...Central Texas... A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]