BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 25 May 2026 19:55:28 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 251955
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama...Central and Northern
Georgia...Central and Upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251953Z - 260145Z

SUMMARY...Deep convection will continue to expand in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening, driven by a surface boundary
across Georgia/South Carolina and a northward-lifting MCV over
Alabama. Intense rainfall rates exceeding 2 in/hr, coupled with
relatively slow storm motions and highly sensitive urban
corridors, will make flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery this afternoon
highlights an expanding footprint of deep convection across the
interior Southeast. Across west-central Georgia through central
South Carolina, activity is focusing along a surface trough and
pronounced instability gradient. Further west, a well-defined MCV
is noted over central AL in visible satellite images steadily
lifting northward.

The mesoscale environment ahead of both of these forcing
mechanisms is highly favorable for extreme rainfall efficiency.
The airmass is characterized by pooling PWATs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches
and MLCAPE values surging into the 1500-2500 J/kg range in the
warm sector. Shear is rather modest with effective bulk shear
generally 20 to 30 kts at best, so much of the convective threat
will tend to remain rather disorganized. Regardless, the pulse and
localized multicell convection will be capable of high rainfall
rates approaching or exceeding 2 in/hr which has already been
confirmed with recent MRMS data.

Given the high rainfall rates and presence of weak steering flow,
there will likely be additional areas of convective persistence
that will support scattered areas of excessive rainfall. The
latest HREF and REFS guidance suggests additional pockets of 2 to
4+ inch rainfall totals going through this evening.

NASA SPoRT soil moisture data and USGS streamflow analyses suggest
areas of sensitivity from recent rainfall, and these additional
rains this afternoon and this evening will promote concerns for
runoff issues. Scattered areas of flash flooding will tend to be
likely, and this will also include concerns by this evening around
the Atlantic metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4EgtUFe52QEX3VP6WsJj9zairWX8Fws5uI6et4v-hMOWC6et8UFG-dcq0hLQ25MJF1t_=
g4Rx2VhG9_k1aEn7tnShd3E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35118486 34998426 34778347 34778274 34618183=20
            34318120 33538120 32908155 32378229 32298323=20
            32438402 32738471 33308560 33518618 33808686=20
            34258708 34778689 35068602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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