BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Mon, 25 May 2026 20:49:35 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 252049
FFGMPD
FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-260245-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Mississippi...Alabama...Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 252047Z - 260245Z
SUMMARY...Multiple Mesoscale Convective Vortices (MCVs) embedded
within a deep tropical airmass will continue to drive rounds of
heavy showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Intense
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr, combined with wet antecedent
conditions and cell-training concerns, will result in localized
additional totals of 3 to 5 inches. Flash flooding is likely.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery late this
afternoon show widespread, deep convection persisting across
sizable areas of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
The mesoscale environment remains exceptionally favorable for
highly efficient, tropical-like rainfall production. Recent RAP
mesoanalysis indicates PWAT values ranging from 1.8 to over 2.1
inches pooling along and inland of the Gulf Coast, juxtaposed with
a broad axis of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This is fostering a deep
warm cloud layer capable of sustaining extreme rainfall rates,
which recent MRMS data confirms are occasionally reaching 2 to 3
in/hr.
The kinematic forcing is being driven by multiple compact MCVs
lifting northward through the deep-layer southerly flow. A
persistent axis of moisture transport and convergence is
continuously feeding these features. The presence of these
boundaries, combined with relatively weak upwind propagation
vectors, is heavily favoring periods of backbuilding and
cell-training.
Going through the evening hours, the latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance (including the HREF and REFS), as well as recent
HRRR and RRFS iterations, are in strong agreement that portions of
this convective axis will be maintained. The CAM consensus
suggests additional localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches
are likely wherever training bands anchor. Given the wet
antecedent conditions and lowering Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
across the region, this additional intense rainfall will likely
favor additional regional concerns for flash flooding. A localized
instance or two of significant flash flooding cannot be ruled out
if some of these rains anchor over the more sensitive urban areas.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4jTEwZrlWt1QNdginnGSyxpxeA8gazGmcZIBu2sFIT7X1o6PYIpbyzs4qD3dkl_yfNyu=
ifRl3i27V8J8qArZbiP-7YY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...OHX...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 35198758 34788670 34078624 32478551 31188528=20
30008551 29728635 30078754 30548794 31428834=20
32058886 33318963 34008972 34678934 35168843=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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