BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Mon, 25 May 2026 21:28:09 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 252128
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-260325-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Western North Carolina...South-Central to
Southeast Virginia
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 252126Z - 260325Z
SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
south-central and southeast Virginia, while new convection
develops across western North Carolina this evening ahead of a
slow-moving cold front. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr,
combined with some cell-training, will yield localized totals of 3
to 5 inches. Extreme rainfall rates may overpower dry antecedent
soils, making flash flooding likely which will include urban
corridors.
DISCUSSION...Late-day satellite and radar imagery depicts an axis
of intense, and locally training convection currently impacting
portions of south-central and southeast Virginia, including the
sensitive I-64 corridor from Richmond down through Hampton Roads.
This activity is tapping into a deeply anomalous, tropical-like
airmass characterized by PWATs pooling between 1.8 and 2.0 inches
and MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. The immediate forcing over
this Virginia corridor is being driven by a stacked, high-end
couplet of strong 850mb convergence and 250mb divergence.
Further southwest, an upstream cold front approaching slowly from
the northwest will interact with this same unstable, moisture-rich
airmass going through the evening hours. This will trigger a
separate and potentially focused area of convection across the
Piedmont region of western North Carolina.
Kinematically, the environment across both target areas is primed
for organized, repeating rounds of heavy rainfall. Effective bulk
shear of 25 to 35 kts will maintain persistent multicell clusters,
while upwind propagation vectors oriented parallel to the
respective forcing boundaries will strongly favor cell-training.
The deep warm cloud depths will support highly efficient rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 in/hr. Consequently, the 18Z high-resolution
ensemble suite (HREF and REFS) strongly supports localized
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches through the evening.
While recent soil moisture data indicates dry antecedent
conditions across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, rainfall rates of
2 to 3 in/hr will likely exceed the maximum infiltration capacity
of the soils, resulting in potential for rapid runoff. The flash
flood threat is currently highest across the low-lying, densely
populated urban footprint of south-central and southeast Virginia,
but will concurrently increase across some of the Piedmont areas
of western North Carolina as the frontal boundary approaches
tonight.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_KRj4u6Q8wMtfB_QElWVybn108hHZT4bvXUNkuCeg2dZFejvW_LK8PqdYhXCtP1XtIkp=
7D7J9nv5gRq3nkD9_tjVaG8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...RAH...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38097699 37837609 37297578 36817594 36567658=20
36367791 35947992 35328163 35208272 35558286=20
35948237 36278181 36708069 37187958 37837819=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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