BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Mon, 25 May 2026 22:12:47 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 252212
FFGMPD
TXZ000-260230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
611 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252211Z - 260230Z

SUMMARY...A compact, slow-moving Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV)
will continue to trigger scattered thunderstorms into this
evening. Weak steering flow will lead to slow storm motions and
localized rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr. While coverage remains
limited, this activity will make highly localized, primarily urban
flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Late-day GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with
radar depicts scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms continuing to
initiate across north-central into central Texas. This activity is
being driven by a stubborn, compact 500mb MCV currently spinning
over the region. The mesoscale environment is characterized by
pooling deep-layer moisture (PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches)
juxtaposed with moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE values of
1500-2500+ J/kg).

While the thermodynamic environment is supportive of efficient
rainfall, the primary driver of the flash flood threat is the
kinematic profile. Effective bulk shear is exceptionally weak
(generally under 20 kts), and upwind propagation vectors are
nearly zero. Consequently, any initiated updrafts are exhibiting
very slow, erratic motions. Recent MRMS data indicates these
nearly stationary cores are successfully producing localized
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr.

Despite the favorable mesoscale setup for heavy rain, overall
convective coverage remains relatively limited, and
high-resolution guidance suggests some uncertainty regarding how
far into the evening hours this activity will persist before
diurnal stabilization takes over. However, given the trajectory of
the MCV, the convective footprint encompasses the sensitive
Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area on down through Waco and
Austin. At least eastern portions of the rocky, runoff-prone
terrain of the Hill Country are also included in the threat area.
Therefore, while widespread issues are not anticipated, isolated
instances of flash flooding remain possible through the
mid-to-late evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6IaTPwDXvDK6JTj3RYxDje9CGvQ0WIt4k-mDctHEHhpGFndDR3ZRfnHabf3cPfaQQfV9=
gkUhLFcnYDcYtoB_gQuvqno$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33359722 32419631 31329612 30359669 29809787=20
            29789869 30269905 31069825 31809806 32569831=20
            33259815=20

=3D =3D =3D
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