BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:07:25 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 131607 SWODY1 SPC AC 131605 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Western/Central Pennsylvania... An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating. One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with this update. ...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should remain low. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]