BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 01:01:12 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening for parts of the Southeast, far west Texas, southern New Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and northern Rockies. ...Southeast... Water vapor imagery shows mid-level south-southwesterly flow over the Southeast. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is analyzed over eastern Mississippi with onshore southerly flow located from the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. In this area, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. A line of strong thunderstorms is located along a low-level convergence zone in far southeast Alabama, just to the west of the instability axis. Also, the RAP shows 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in far southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia could be as great as 100 to 125 m2/s2, suggesting that an isolated tornado threat will be possible. A few of the stronger storms may also have an isolated wind-damage threat. ...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwestern New Mexico extending southeastward into far west Texas. Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within a weakly unstable airmass with the RAP showing MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In addition, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and low-level lapse rates are very steep over parts of far west Texas. This environment may support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts early this evening. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southern Ontario. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of a front across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Ahead of the storms, a narrow axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP suggesting an isolated severe threat will continue for another hour or so. The line is expected to weaken as it moves over the cooler waters of Lake Superior later this evening. ...Northern Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota/Northwest Iowa/Southwest Minnesota... The latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate instability located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis from northeast Nebraska into far northwest Iowa. Although deep-layer shear is relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening. Hail may also occur with the stronger cells. As the low-level jet increases across the central Plains later this evening, convective coverage is expected to increase. A cluster of strong thunderstorms, that is currently in northeast Colorado, is forecast to move northeastward across southwest Nebraska. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur with some of these storms. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the far eastern Pacific to the northwest of Washington. A trough extends southward just off the coast of the Washington and Oregon, with southwesterly mid-level flow located over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Within this flow, a pocket of weak instability is analyzed by the RAP over northern Idaho and western Montana. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 05/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]