BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 01:05:01 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 260104
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-260700-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
903 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Northern Alabama...Middle and Southeast
Tennessee...Northern Georgia...Far Upstate South
Carolina...Western North Carolina
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 260103Z - 260700Z
SUMMARY...Efficient showers and thunderstorms will continue to
track across northern Alabama and into the complex terrain of the
southern Appalachians tonight. Forcing from a nearby synoptic
front and a translating MCV, combined with deep moisture, will
support rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr. Localized additional
totals of 2 to 4+ inches will make flash flooding likely.
DISCUSSION...Early-evening GOES-E IR satellite and regional radar
data shows an axis of highly efficient convection moving across
the southern Appalachians, intersecting portions of southeast
Tennessee, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Further
west, a distinct Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) positioned
along the AL/MS border continues to drive heavy rainfall across
northwest Alabama. Through the late evening hours, the forcing
associated with this MCV is expected to translate northeastward
across far northern Alabama and middle Tennessee, generally
merging with the ongoing convective threat over the higher terrain
of the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians.
The mesoscale environment remains highly supportive of heavy,
sustained rainfall. A synoptic-scale front draped across the
region is interacting with 500 to 1000 J/kg of lingering MLCAPE,
providing continuous fuel to sustain the convective threat. This
is occurring within a deep tropical airmass characterized by
Precipitable Water (PWAT) values of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.
Furthermore, strong large-scale ascent is being provided by a
stacked couplet of 850mb convergence and 250mb divergence centered
over the region.
As the convection tracks generally northeastward, low-level flow
vectors are oriented to provide modest but persistent upslope
ascent into the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and Blue
Ridge Mountains. This orographic forcing, combined with the deep
warm cloud layer and the synoptic/MCV lift, is yielding highly
efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr.
The latest high-resolution guidance (including recent HRRR
iterations) suggests that these intense rates will persist over
the next several hours, capable of depositing localized additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches. Given the steep topography,
flashy nature of the local basins, and wet antecedent conditions,
rapid runoff is expected. Areas of flash flooding are already
ongoing, and additional flash flooding is expected over the next
several hours which will include rapid rises on small creeks,
streams, and low-water crossings.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5T5-tBUse90iIR8cAVDePjIh0Zu0ljH8pr00Wf99SAlbt0bovSxKulXsCvO9NuuEFdHx=
wjsyULM0p6TK3s9fqZyFvR0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MEG...MRX...OHX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36328158 35768116 35158196 34768288 34408398=20
34108582 33718729 33878791 34268819 34908797=20
35248721 35538594 35648481 35938352 36208256=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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