BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 02:02:08 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 260202
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-260700-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Northern Florida...Eastern Georgia...Central
South Carolina...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 260200Z - 260700Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving,back-building potential within very deep
moisture environment pose spots of 2-4" and possible widely
scattered incident or two of flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW suite especially in the sfc to 700mb layers
shows a dual streams of confluence from the central Gulf into the
Northeast Gulf melding across the northern neck of Florida into
southeast GA, resulting in a plume of 2-2.25" total PWats with
solid deep layer convergence. Also, lower profiles show
sufficient heating for narrow skinny profiles and a wedge of
remaining 1500 J/kg. Aloft, anticyclonic curved right entrance of
upper level jet is also providing solid divergence aloft along the
confluence axis to help maintain updrafts. The deep layer
confluence does have some split above 700mb to allow for some weak
DPVA ascent to compliment the divergence aloft but given the
oblique nature at the far eastern influence of the closed
upper-low over Texas. As such, thunderstorm activity with
15-25kts of upstream speed max at 850mb, supports potential for
back-building, especially further south and likely to support
2-2.5"/hr rates.=20=20
With weak inflow, cell motions will also be diminished allowing
for greater residency time and highly focused but widely scattered
incidents of 2-4" totals. Sandy conditions across N FL into GA
have naturally higher FFG, but recent repeating days of convection
has lead to an increase in 0-40cm soil moisture values per NASA
SPoRT, as such; given these rates, a few incidents of
focused/localized flash flooding are considered possible.
While the moisture flux is reduced further north, the Piedmont of
SC has seen Total PWats up to 2.25" as well, and with slightly
deflected low level flow responding to the upper-level ridge aloft
and jet entrance to the northeast; a similar convective
environment/potential exists as well. The main difference is the
naturally lower FFG and prone areas along the Fall-line in central
SC, so even with less rainfall rates/potential than further south,
the hydrology will be easier to exceed given the moisture
availability.
Gallina
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8mQciNTb-G1-PUEUKuF1u8CSN3ePK5WYz5ABJeJy2W46RextCdQHU5rnAfQyUgMIgStx=
KLx_dLBYWOj5kGNQFI30Vaw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34508120 34268053 33018137 31938176 31008181=20
29928183 29918258 31708291 32478299 33288286=20
33958197=20
=3D =3D =3D
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