BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 02:48:41 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 260248
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260830-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1047 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Western Texas Cap Rock...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 260245Z - 260830Z
SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence will support up to
1.5"/hr rates with slowly advancing convective complex. Localized
totals of 2-3" may produce localized flash flooding conditions
overnight.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows the larger scale closed low over the
San Francisco Plateau of northern Arizona with broad/strong
southwesterly flow along the southern periphery. Embedded within
the weakly negative tilt trough is a tight vorticity/shortwave
center that is well depicted in both WV and regional RADAR suite
in the Rio Grande Valley near KHMN. The speed shear and vorticity
is providing a strong upslope component along the lee of the
Sacramento Mtns with a pair of surface low near Roswell and
Carlsbad, with both having very high directional convergence along
it (with northerly winds from NE NM and strong SE winds across the
Pecos River Valley). Surface to boundary layer moisture is
limited to mid to upper 40s Tds, but the CIRA LPW shows pool of
enhanced banked up moisture in two lowest layers (850-700,
700-500mb layers) providing total PWats into the 1" range
currently. However, the strength of low-level flux through the
Pecos Valley will be increasing throughout the early overnight
period.=20
Given the strong dynamics aloft and very convergent low levels,
moisture flux is starting to support 1.25-1.5"/hr rates, given
10.3um EIR shows complex cooling to -65C to -70C. As such, a
convective complex is maturing over eastern and southeastern NM;
with initial convective cells upscaling and merging into larger
clusters and eventually a complex over the next few hours. This
should allow for increased residency time and an area of 2-3"
totals can be expected.
Very dry/hard grounds with naturally high FFG values may help to
mitigate broader flash flooding conditions, but given the
intensity with localized bursts during mergers, localized flash
flooding conditions may arise though the evening. Eventually a
cold pool should develop and the complex should start to advance
eastward, likely quickly given very strong propagation vectors
given increasing east-southeast surface to 850mb flow over 40kts,
so potential will diminish with time.
Gallina
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4fgCMyy8vR0xzYHXBC1an4ca8CQbZrr1azdB1mxEaW-d3yoN7MDlvuwc6YyedyuSuo4H=
P4yo_9ImXhMmtXY3E1UFUIc$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35390454 35270374 34760308 33980244 32760234=20
31960297 31980411 32440459 33070493 33400507=20
34280521 35070504=20
=3D =3D =3D
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