BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 03:32:18 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 260332
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260900-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle...Pecos River Valley...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 260330Z - 260900Z
SUMMARY...Fast moving, but increasing intense rainfall rates with
Sub-hourly totals of 1", resulting in quick run-off and possible
localized flash flooding incident or two overnight.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR denotes a expanding line of
scattered thunderstorms increasing/cooling across the central
portion of the Western Texas Panhandle spurred on by rapid
height-falls from an ejecting shortwave in south-central NM within
a broader base of the large scale trough centered in N AZ. The
broad southwesterly flow crossing terrain has resulted in a very
strong lee-pressure trough across much of eastern NM to a surface
low near ROW; however, behind the main S/W lifting out, the
surface trough then angles southwest into Hudspeth county and
northern Chihuahua denoted well by some low-level warmer topped
agitated Cu/Tcu.=20
Strong response in the low-levels with up-slope winds steadily
increasing past 30kts on their way to 40kts is helping convective
initiation/development two fold. The initial is the strong mass
convergence that extends along the entire surface trough to break
out these scattered cells, the second is increasing moisture
transport, Tds has steadily increased into the low 50s, but low
60s and sfc-850mb LPW (up to .75") is coming up the Rio Grande and
Pecos River Valleys to intersect the initial convective round.=20
Not surprisingly given proximity to the elevated desert plateau,
steep lapse rates are supporting increasing instability values as
the higher theta-E air pushes in to allow for strong vigor of
updrafts and moistening the columns. Currently rates are minimal
due to evaporative loss, but as the overall moisture arrives, flux
convergence will support intense rainfall rates capable of
.5-.75"/15 minutes (per HRRR). While forward propagation will be
equally fast and reduce overall totals, localized spots of 1.5"
are possible in about 1hr and the harder ground conditions will be
difficult for infiltration at those rates suggesting localized
flash flooding is possible tonight.
While a bit less certain, there are suggestions, given strong
southwesterly flow and embedded mid-level impulses and expected
limited eastward movement of the surface trough, additional
development may be possible to allow for a secondary round to
occur later in the period, with best potential further north along
the TX/NM east-west boarder. Will continue to monitor those
trends for any subsequent MPD necessity.=20
Gallina
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9FNM9rT40AmTjVu5cmW52AF9sGiR5_3d2Of1w2kKCglVD0tRAxRvfMMl-jWI1Or9gwXh=
RsRIcxYae3EMWh1O5hqfY6c$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32340317 32170238 31690186 30950168 29930199=20
29640258 29250280 28960324 29300415 29730461=20
30450487 30810489 31600479 32050416=20
=3D =3D =3D
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