BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:02:45 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 260602 SWODY1 SPC AC 260600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies. ...West and Southwest Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across southwest Texas during the early evening. ...Kentucky... South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near 70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast. This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Upper Midwest... Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will be stronger. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level low will move southward across northern California today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]