BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Tue, 26 May 2026 08:27:16 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 260827
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-261400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Portions of the Cap Rock,
Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos Regions of Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260830Z - 261400Z

SUMMARY...Main cluster to maintain/enhanced through early morning
with hourly rates of 1-1.5"/hr and additional 2-3" totals, with
continued incidents of localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts closed low tightening a bit
over NE AZ with broad southwesterly flow across its southeast
quadrant starting to lift with veering 500mb winds enhancing
larger scale DPVA across the Rio Grande into Pecos River Valleys
over the next few hours.  This will help to broaden diffluence and
dual jet divergence pattern across SE NM into the eastern portions
of the W Texas Panhandle.  The combination will help to
maintain/evacuate the expanding convective cluster across SE NM
moving into the W Texas portion of the Permian Basin.=20=20

Low-level jet response remains strong with 30-40kts of
southeasterly flow generally orthogonally intersecting the
rainfall reinforced surface trof/isentropic ascent boundary that
extends from a surface low east of Hobbs back west northwest of
the Davis Mtns through southern Hudspeth county though surface to
850mb flow is further backing south across the Big Bend due to
strengthening surface to 850mb near the National Park.  Tds into
the upper 50s/lower 60s are now intersecting the boundary and
helping to maintain the main cluster but also help to develop more
cells upstream across W TX Panhandle over the next few hours,
likely to track northeast and trend toward later period possible
mergers.   Total PWats at or just above 1.25" are filling in and
rainfall rates continue to increase in efficiency ranging from
1-1.5"/hr.=20=20

Given the placement of the expanding complex to the split in the
upper-level jet pattern; deep layer steering remains back-sheared
to the north and north-northwest and likely to continue to be slow
given the col in 500-1000mb thickness over the area.  Forward
propagation will continue slowly eastward with combination of
strong inflow from the east, but also cold pool generation.  As
such, residency of a few hours should allow for some localized
2-3" totals to manifest. As such, localized flash flooding
concerns will continue to remain through the early morning.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5IuurpHag8RebIAYrUU8nV6Xfd1UM_XunzmHQmNAiEJWQH-ZVz3eKc0ZAA228OSGh7g4=
bge6gwjtFwX1azMb6B8kjgI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35300296 34420154 33460106 32500121 31620182=20
            31120236 29850354 29830467 30790482 31910477=20
            32610430 33200413 34500414 35220393=20

=3D =3D =3D
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