BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 12:44:46 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 261244 SWODY1 SPC AC 261243 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening. ...Southwest into South-Central Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail. ...Kentucky... A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity. ...Upper Midwest... A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ...Northern Rockies... A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]