BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Tue, 26 May 2026 16:05:33 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 261605
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...Southern Alabama and the Western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261604Z - 262100Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are developing along the Gulf Coast
in a pocket of maximized instability and atmospheric moisture
content. The convection could produce rainfall rates to 3 inches
per hour where training occurs. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...With diurnal heating now in full swing, scattered
strong thunderstorms have developed over the western tip of the
Florida Peninsula, now extending into far southern Alabama. These
storms have formed in an area of increased instability due to
lesser prior cloud cover, as well as in a corridor of maximized
atmospheric moisture. SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs to 2.2 inches
just off the coast of Pensacola, and over 2 inches where the
storms have formed. SBCAPE values are around 3,000 J/kg, so the
storms have more than enough moisture instability to continue
growing upscale into the afternoon hours.

CAMs guidance shows the storms are likely to increase in coverage,
taking advantage of the plentiful moisture and instability.
Despite recent heavy rains in the area, 1-hr FFGs remain over 2
inches for all of the highlighted area, and in some cases near the
coast, close to 3 inches. Given those still high thresholds, flash
flooding will generally be possible, confined to where the storms
line up in such a way as to maximize the duration of heavy
rainfall. Several urban areas could see those storms, in which
case the local thresholds required to realize flash flooding will
be lower.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8AP8n9DQBcxSaphOD6Cm_94edGMSPkg73FfwEoXwDXkip_d7Ao2vXWJa_vyK3VdCEKAk=
eSTt-XmkzryxcTSEGZMqqfA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   32618641 32578606 31998571 31458548 30838535=20
            30278549 30058558 30288603 30378660 30348716=20
            30198750 30178832 30238868 30148918 30358927=20
            30398927 30648930 31098900 31678871 32068818=20
            32458755=20

=3D =3D =3D
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