BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Tue, 26 May 2026 20:38:35 +0000
-----------------------------------------------------------
AWUS01 KWNH 262038
FFGMPD
TXZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas affected...central to south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262035Z - 270200Z

SUMMARY...A few widely scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible across the Hill Country into south-central TX through
02Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be common but isolated
higher values of 2 to 3 inches will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over west-central TX showed a
largely forward propagating broken axis of thunderstorms
stretching from the southern TX Panhandle to near Del Rio and
northern Coahuila. More discrete cellular development was located
ahead of this axis from the I-10 corridor across the Hill Country
and as far south as US-57, with a general movement toward the
northeast. The environment across this region of TX contained
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with little to no inhibition, PWs of 1.5 to
1.8 inches and sufficient shear along and south of I-10 for
organized cells (via 20Z SPC mesoanalysis). Forcing in the mid to
upper levels was coming from a negatively tilted trough axis over
West TX and divergent and diffluent flow within the left-exit
region of a 100-120 kt subtropical jet over northern Mexico.

A mixture of supercell, multicell and ordinary cells are expected
given the environment with a range of speeds from the south to
west. Right-moving supercells should have the slowest movement
toward the east at ~10 to 20 kt. Some additional convective
development ahead of the forward propagating axis to the west is
anticipated through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening within the unstable environment. Higher rainfall rates
will occur with areas of short-term training where line segments
within the western axis of thunderstorms matches the deeper layer
mean wind from the southwest allowing for 1 to 2+ inches of rain
in an hour. Additional potential for higher rates will come from
cell mergers and brief upstream development/training along and
ahead of this axis. The combination of factors above may result in
a few widely scattered areas of flash flooding, especially where
overlap of higher rates occurs with lower flash flood guidance of
the TX Hill Country to the I-35 corridor.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8KWeFV38JD7C_rWzAfPhhg8at7ud3cSFX5U0CWA_WPJ6-Pk_wMsoM6jkr_AAVscdeZHN=
NYwSkwlQF5yQ5LkGagoJWMw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31499951 31349867 30849776 29989740 29199745=20
            28409828 28049924 28010024 29010090 29510126=20
            30170124 30710067 31390013=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

-----------------------------------------------------------
[Voltar]