BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Tue, 26 May 2026 22:51:23 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 262251
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-270445-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...east-central GA into central/northern SC
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 262249Z - 270445Z
SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain and flash flood potential will
increase from east-central GA into central/northern SC through the
early overnight hours. 1 to 2 inch per hour rates (or 1 to 2
inches in less than 1 hour) and 2 to 4+ inch totals will be
possible through 05Z.
DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery through 2230Z showed the
inland push of a sea breeze boundary extending from just south of
Columbia, SC into portions of southeastern GA. A few thunderstorms
were located along the boundary but there was generally a higher
coverage in SC compared to GA. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms
were located across the Piedmont of SC into GA with a general
movement toward the NNE, except in SC, where southeastward
advancing outflow was causing propagation toward the east. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE remained
along with high PW values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches from GA into SC,
containing estimated wet bulb zero heights of 12-14 kft.
Some degree of continued inland advancement is expected with the
sea breeze boundary containing scattered thunderstorms over the
next 1-3 hours. Meanwhile, RAP forecast guidance has been
suggesting 0-1 km flow becoming increasingly confluent along the
western edge of the sea breeze boundary as veered flow occurs over
the western half of GA. The combination of low level
convergence/confluence atop modest diffluece aloft is expected to
yield an increase in convection over portions of southeastern GA
over the next 1-3 hours with a general NNE movement of cells. The
alignment of cells with the deeper layer mean wind could support
some periods of short term training. Farther north into SC, The
eastward advancement of ongoing thunderstorms over Upstate SC,
meeting with advancing activity farther east, could allow for
mergers and brief training/high rain rates.
The environment is supportive of warm rain processes and efficient
rainfall production with potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in
15-30 minutes. Due to 3 to 6+ inches of rain that has fallen over
a good portion of the region over the past 3 days, flash flood
guidance is lowered in a several locations with the potential for
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding possible through 05Z.
Otto
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9y3eVJRYyNYfDoUWD-8_sx_obLFJMjW9Hbkv0xidNsj26HrBi0cO4OF8ZZVCtTRNxzCP=
ZwQws_EK2rtEjYislsp_zGk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 35188124 34938073 34538034 33938028 32918094=20
31168207 30758244 30818281 31178305 32288316=20
33558300 34518253 35168179=20
=3D =3D =3D
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