BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Wed, 27 May 2026 05:30:31 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 270530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-271100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026
Areas affected...Eastern & Southeast Texas...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 270530Z - 271100Z
SUMMARY...Urban flash flooding risk as squall line weakens and
stalls along the central TX coast, with quick burst of sub-hourly
totals of 1.25-1.75", resulting in localized 2-3" and possible
flash flooding overnight.
DISCUSSION...
Regional RADAR and 05z surface analysis shows strong, mature,
progressive squall line emerging from the I-35 corridor moving
into the Central Texas Coastal Plain rapidly approaching the
College Station to Houston urban areas and moving out of MPD 251=20
A pool of conditionally unstable air awaits it along the upper to
central TX Gulf coast with low to mid-70s Tds (with some upper
70s directly on the coast) and MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from a
preceding surface trof from KCLL to KJAS into central LA and
southward. Strong inflow and latent heat release aloft should
continue to maintain that forward progress, but the shear
magnitude of moisture fluxed into the leading edge will support
very intense instantaneous rain-rates with 15-30 minute 1.25-1.75"
totals expected given current observational trends and recent HRRR
forecast trends. For the most part, the totals will remain at the
edge/just below all naturally higher FFG values (1-6hrs) but urban
and traditionally prone, poorly draining locations are probable to
be overwhelmed in short-term. The question will be the overall
volume and given the breadth of the squall line, neighboring
upper-reaches of small watersheds may compound quickly for
localized rapid inundation flash flooding.
North of the trough axis, deep layer steering shifts to support
back-shearing from southeast to northwest into the deepening
outflow channel, cold pool and surface meso-highs are much weaker
and left-bookend/cyclonic eddy may allow for slightly reduced
rates/downdraft intensity to linger/greater residency to approach
similar localized 2-3" totals. This still may not reach the
higher FFG values in the area, but there remains a low-end risk
for flash flooding here as well, especially near urban locales.=20=20=20
Gallina
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9XGS5W5EHcaDcVlgv6ljeUn_Y8gGB-rnq1ClTqqtUklx4OJ7UUCCgY9-0jXozHJ2yhzg=
fqFyVeo39SXpn-qU1dG3cxQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33189613 33159523 32549462 31249394 30679380=20
29959380 29159478 28539581 27989692 28329757=20
28909760 29819715 30449675 31349606 32099612=20
32829644=20
=3D =3D =3D
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