BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Wed, 27 May 2026 19:50:29 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 271950
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Areas affected...OH Valley into Central Appalachians.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271947Z - 280130Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible across
the OH Valley into the central Appalachians over the next 3-5
hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr area expected and shorter fused
rates of over 0.5 inches in 15 minutes will also be possible.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery and surface observations at
1930Z showed a southward sinking outflow boundary that extended
from the southwestern corner of southwestern PA into southern OH
and into south-central IN, co-located with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorm activity was noted south of
the outflow boundary from eastern KY into central WV, out ahead of
a pair of vorticity maxima observed on water vapor imagery. A
larger scale vorticity max/shortwave was observed across IL/IN,
with eastward motion, helping support lift across the region.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall was largely below 1 inch for a
majority of the the region, with the exception of south-central IN
where training was supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches but
also 15-minute rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches.

With ample moisture/instability remaining in place via 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis data (500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches), and continued forcing from ascent along/ahead of the
outflow and ahead of the upstream shortwave/vorticity maxima,
scattered thunderstorms will continue across the OH Valley into
the central Appalachians through the early evening. Expectations
are for individual cell movement toward the east at an average
speed of 10-25 kt but with system evolution toward the south with
time. Brief training will briefly enhance rain rates with 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour or less, likely supporting a few areas
of flash flooding across the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians where flash flood guidance values are mostly ~1 inch
per hour.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_b-um9cBG32hinS9h0nsHCX6JVXaJXHQKVf5ihAOeJa5-677MN_JCdIxF56NzjE9uG7E=
Nbpr-rm5oitn8zxWkhxApvk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39738605 39598500 39108341 39298184 39688014=20
            39027906 38297916 37558034 37558172 37778368=20
            37838433 38368599 39158629=20

=3D =3D =3D
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