BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 05:24:59 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 280524
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-281123-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0263
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 280523Z - 281123Z
Summary...An increasing threat for localized flash flooding will
occur over portions of western Kansas into the adjacent Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles as rainfall rates approach 2 inches per hour
at times.=20
Discussion...Broad upper level troughing with multiple smaller
mid-level perturbations pivoting around the general circulation
are causing a period of unsettled weather over the Central and
Southern Plains this evening. At the surface, a defined surface
trough axis is positioned over the western High Plains of Kansas
down through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles with an area low
pressure centered near Amarillo, Texas. Within the bounds of the
surface trough, deep moisture and prominent instability maximum is
co-located within the surface trough axis' and under the main area
of circulation positioned over the New Mexico/Colorado/Kansas
border. The alignment of the surface trough and primary upper
trough correlate to a more formidable area of forcing which is
well-documented in the latest deep moisture convergence pattern
from the latest mesoanalysis.
KDDC this evening experienced PWAT anomalies approaching the
95-99th percentile of climatological means for this time of year,
a testament to the depth and magnitude of sufficient deep layer
moisture availability. MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg will be
positioned across the area of interest providing sufficient
buoyancy for updraft development and initiating stronger
convective cores capable of heavy rainfall production. A few cells
are already occurring in the region with pockets of 1-2"/hr rates
and some intra-hour pulses reaching near 3"/hr at times as cells
mature. Deterministic outputs from the latest HRRR and RRFS
indicate some localized amounts between 2-4" over the next 6 hours
as the axis of convergence within the surface trough placement
begins to levy a more enhanced convective footprint over the
course of the early morning hours, perhaps lingering through most
of the morning if some of the CAMs are correct.
The likelihood of flash flooding remains in the modest category
due to the antecedent soil moisture conditions over the area as a
prolonged drier pattern has firmly driven FFG's to a less
favorable scenario for flash flooding compared to normal. As a
result, there is a flash flood risk possible over the western High
Plains between Kansas, Oklahoma, far southeast Colorado, and the
northern Texas Panhandle.
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_--zGD1Hhgh1tmk6NVsMcJGiV3nLu5WZawmCS6KtDhgO7-1Tpqc3QGny0D0JHgyBDDt-=
ChkxUSSk1N4pVR3t6WAlYVU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38520115 38320041 37489993 36309960 35759966=20
35400025 35590117 36120209 36580235 37100235=20
37780237 38320211=20
=3D =3D =3D
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