BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:55:01 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 281254 SWODY1 SPC AC 281253 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN IDAHO INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western Idaho and east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Severe gusts (60-85 mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the forecast hazards this afternoon through the late evening. ...Columbia Basin vicinity into ID/northern NV... A mid- to upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada will move little during the period. Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a disturbance over NV will move north and northwestward through eastern NV into eastern OR by early evening. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop by late afternoon and migrate from the ID/OR border into the Columbia Basin. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates arc around the northern periphery of the western U.S. low and extend from the Snake Valley westward into OR/WA. As heating of a seasonably moist airmass occurs, initial thunderstorm activity will gradually shift from south to north from northern NV/southern ID and southern OR. Model forecast soundings show steep low to mid tropospheric lapse rates favorable for evaporative cooling and the development of strong to severe downdrafts. Slightly greater buoyancy is shown in model guidance farther north in northern OR into western ID (1500 J/kg MLCAPE). As storms move into this region during the late afternoon to evening timeframe, it is possible a more extensive threat for severe gusts develops. Regardless, severe outflow both with the stronger cores and linearly oriented clusters appear to be the main hazard. Large hail may accompany the stronger cells. A continued threat for scattered severe gusts may occur into the late evening as this activity shifts northward into interior portions of WA. ...East-central Colorado... A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail threat with the stronger cells. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/28/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]