BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 16:17:11 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 281616
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282214-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, far
southwest Alabama
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 281614Z - 282214Z
Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms producing heavy rain rates is
evolving slowly primarily across southern Mississippi. Flash
flooding is likely on an isolated to scattered basis through at
least 19Z.
Discussion...Persistent warm advection has enabled scattered to
numerous thunderstorm activity in the general vicinity of
Hammond, Picayune, and Wiggins over the past 1-2 hours or so. The
storms are focused on the northern edge of enhanced 850mb flow
over the north-central Gulf (20-30 knots per RAP/SPC Mesoanalysis)
while also experiencing the glancing influence of upstream
mid-level waves providing ascent. Abundant moisture (2+ inch PW
values) and surface-based instability (exceeding 2000 J/kg) will
continue to support repeating thunderstorm activity within the
warm advection regime in place.
Models/CAMs support repeating thunderstorm activity from
southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi for a few more
hours, with hourly rain rates exceeding 2 inches per hour where
repeating/training is most pronounced. These rates are likely to
exceed FFG over time and prompt flash flooding. Through 19-20Z,
models suggest that low-level flow/convergence will slacken some
and cause thunderstorm activity to 1) eventually shift to the
northeast of its current axis and 2) exhibit lesser coverage over
all. Some models remove thunderstorm potential entirely, but this
scenario is doubtful as persistent mid/upper troughing to the west
will provide lift/ascent for at least isolated thunderstorm
activity to persist after 20Z through peak heating. Despite high
FFGs across parts of southern Mississippi, high rain rates will
likely result in at least isolated instances of flash flooding
especially if rain can occur over more urban/sensitive interfaces.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-fvkGdfh2avWXaazlAGXCuI23fP4DkqifkF5JwmjFWOkDzBk9DzZQerSzyPfHBbDRTTE=
8cIGTkf1E0LecWwhhPoF6uQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32158946 32098858 31788813 30708810 30108843=20
29328918 29259045 30099053 31319053 31739041=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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