BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 16:35:38 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 281635
FFGMPD
MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282234-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0266
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of Arkansas, southern Missouri, and far
southeast Kansas
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 281634Z - 282234Z
Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were beginning to increase in
coverage and intensity especially across north-central Arkansas.=20
Slow movement and efficient rainfall activity will result in a few
areas of flash flooding through 22Z/5p central.
Discussion...Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity along
a general axis extending from near Flippin/Harrison south to near
Camden, AR over the last hour. The storms are being forced by 1)
ascent associated with a mid-level trough centered over Oklahoma
and 2) differential heating through that aforementioned axis
across central/north-central Arkansas. Abundant surface heating
east of the axis has allowed for 2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop amid
an uncapped airmass, supporting deep convection. 2.1 inch PW
values are also supporting efficient rain rates within the
convection, while weak south-southeasterly steering flow aloft has
enabled slow storm motions and localized training. Rain rates
approaching 2 inches/hr have already been estimated in parts of
north-central Arkansas, which isn't surprising given the regime in
place to support heavy rain.
The ongoing scenario will evolve slowly today, with convection
continuing to expand northward and westward across the discussion
area today. Additional convective development across northeastern
Arkansas also appears likely. Areas of 3-4 inch rainfall totals
are expected, which will likely overwhelm low-lying/sensitive
areas and prompt flash flooding on and isolated to scattered
basis. This risk will likely persist through 22Z/5p central and
beyond, with convective coverage driven/modulated by the degree of
heating/instability in the upstream airmass across the eastern
half of the discussion area.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8YIaDTTQNAXznO16YGvzw6lxt-8Y78isY3_puggJvnAgsTPd-2AUUKPZVym_p-XKJj8F=
u_-t9EyCwgdR6bFTpUDOfro$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
SHV...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38759486 38329259 37449070 35879018 33759115=20
33119204 33489375 35429434 36949479 38009547=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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