BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- AWUS01 KWNH 281705 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-282104- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0267 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 104 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern/northeastern Louisiana, western Mississippi, and far southeast Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 281704Z - 282104Z Summary...A band of convection was taking shape/increasing in coverage along an axis from Monroe to Natchez. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible with this activity as it moves slowly northward this afternoon. Discussion...Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were beginning to be estimated per MRMS within a convective band extending from Monroe to Natchez. These storms were in a distinctive warm-advection environment, with southeasterly low-level flow maintaining both upper 70s F dewpoints and 2+ inch PW values - both supporting heavy rainfall. Destabilization east of the ongoing convective band was also aiding in its intensification, while ascent associated with a mid-level trough over Oklahoma was also providing ascent for deep updrafts. Slow northward storm motions and localized mergers/training will both contribute to areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates in a few spots through 19-20Z. The rain rates were falling on areas of relatively high FFG, with thresholds of 2.5-3 inch/hr noted across the discussion area. Any flash flood potential in the discussion area should be isolated and primarily tied to precipitation over sensitive/low-lying or urbanized areas. Convection will likely be diurnally driven, and may eventually be impacted by maturing convection over far southern MS and expanding cold pool/stabilization processes - especially in southern parts of the discussion area. Cook ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4z9cZ38byOwjuerr0q4JER0Kel9y8sSOjAFJkAdlZ-Sr-iRlmTpTGKuaPyaWA0NGTWhj= XPp7DnpCQjL6Ew8hs8HtGi0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 33669021 32308969 31009136 32669228 33459195=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]