BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:00:20 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 282300
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290455-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
Areas affected...southern MO/northern AR to the Lower MS Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 282258Z - 290455Z
SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will continue to be
possible across portions of central to eastern AR, possibly
extending into southern MO, far southwestern TN and northwestern
MS. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and additional totals of 2
to 4 inches are expected through 05Z.
DISCUSSION...2230Z radar imagery across southeastern AR into
south-central MO showed an axis of slow moving thunderstorms with
an outflow boundary slowly edging eastward. Meanwhile,
thunderstorm activity has picked up over the past few hours from
northeastern AR, northward into southern MO. In addition to the
surface outflow boundary, larger scale low level convergence has
been contributing to a SSE to NNW axis of thunderstorms across AR,
with mean steering flow oriented parallel to the convergence axis
allowing for training of cells. Earlier hourly rainfall was 1 to
2+ inches with 6-hr MRMS estimates of 3 to 5 inches over portions
of northern AR. While the coverage of heavy rain has diminished
compared to earlier in the afternoon, a flash flood threat
remains.
SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed that 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
remained over the eastern half of AR into adjacent portions of
TN/MS. Aloft, a slow moving mid-level trough axis over western KS
into southeastern OK was favoring a divergent and diffluent flow
regime from MO/AR to the MS River.
While not as contiguous as earlier, low level convergence
(possibly fragmented sections) will continue to support localized
heavy rain across the region into the early overnight hours. The
primary and nearest term threat will exist across the northeastern
quadrant of AR where ongoing thunderstorm activity was in place.
Secondly, there is potential for increased low level convergence
to the north of a 925-850 mb low located over northeastern LA,
inferred via loops of visible satellite imagery, VAD wind data and
RAP analyses. This farther south flash flood threat is less
certain in occurrence, placement and timing, but may impact
eastern AR into the southeastern quadrant of the state and
northwestern MS after 00Z. As with locations in northeastern AR,
portions of southeastern AR have also received well above average
rainfall over the past week (200 to 600 percent of normal),
contributing to greater potential for runoff due to additional
heavy rain.
Otto
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6OkyWS4maAzPRRpDECelKxXgR0ZueCASmzfq5sFa1ifkC1UayacBZajSSejNDMixqn7q=
KjZRvCS6bYw_-S8PoodmZD0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37389279 37369205 36689065 35638967 34928946=20
34038979 33419017 33009106 33139162 33849201=20
34669249 35379281 36049315 36899310=20
=3D =3D =3D
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