BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 29 May 2026 00:56:05 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 290056 SWODY1 SPC AC 290054 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon into western Idaho and Montana. The primary hazards will be large hail and scattered severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... As of 01 UTC, scattered to widespread thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of an inverted trough axis from central OR (where a more focused vorticity maximum is noted in GOES imagery) into north-central MT. More isolated and short-lived convection continues to develop within a weak up-slope flow regime along the CO front range. While the potential for severe convection should quickly wane after 03 UTC across the central High Plains, a severe hail and wind threat will persist through late evening across the Pacific Northwest. ...Pacific Northwest... Regional radar depicts a myriad of convective modes ranging from broken bands across central OR to splitting supercells across eastern WA, ID, and northwest MT. This activity will continue to spread northwestward as the inverted mid-level trough shifts west towards the Pacific Northwest coast through tonight. A combination of surface dewpoints in the 50s and cool mid-level temperatures (associated with the mid-level trough axis) continue to support MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. This buoyancy axis should spread northwest in tandem with ongoing storms and help maintain some degree of intensity over the next several hours. Per regional VWP observations, mid-level winds across WA/ID remain near 40-50 knots with decreasing magnitudes with northward extent into eastern WA and northern ID. Despite the weaker deep-layer wind shear, dewpoint depressions on the order of 25-30 F hint that a deeply-mixed boundary layer remains in place downstream of approaching storms. The onset of nocturnal cooling should be too shallow/insufficient to offset downdraft accelerations through the lowest 1-2 km as convection spreads northwest and cold pools begin to amalgamate. Recent CAM guidance shows fairly strong agreement in a substantial wind threat spreading north/northwestward across eastern WA and northern ID later this evening. Consequently, 15% wind and the intensity level 1 contour have been expanded to account for this potential. ...Colorado... Convection across the CO Front Range has been fairly transient and tied to the terrain over the past couple of hours, largely due to the weak up-slope flow regime. However, latest GOES imagery continues to show deep cumulus development in proximity to the Denver area, and recent RAP mesoanalysis show sufficient deep-layer wind shear for at least transient organized convection capable of a brief large hail threat. This environment, and the overall severe threat, should wane through 03 UTC. ..Moore.. 05/29/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]