BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Fri, 29 May 2026 01:59:34 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 290159
FFGMPD
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-290700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0270
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
958 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Areas affected...northern OR into southern/southeastern WA and
northern ID

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290156Z - 290700Z

Summary...An isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
linger across northern OR into southern/southeastern WA and
northern ID over the next 3-5 hours. Potential will exist for peak
hourly rain of 1 to 1.5 inches and isolated totals up to 2 inches
through 07Z.

Discussion...GOES West infrared imagery and GLM data showed a SW
to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms advancing northwestward
across central to northern OR at 0145Z. Cells to the northeast of
this region across northern ID and western MT were more discrete
in nature but a few smaller clusters were beginning to form. While
instability had decreased across much of central OR, there
remained impressive MLCAPE from northern OR into eastern WA and
northern ID of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg according to the 00Z OTX RAOB
and recent SPC mesoanalysis (highest in the southern ID Panhandle,
south of I-90). PW values were also anomalously high at 0.9 to 1.2
inches over much of the region.

With sunset, the onset of nocturnal cooling at the surface is
expected to stabilize the low levels and reduce ongoing widely
scattered convective activity over western MT into portions of the
ID Panhandle. However, strong ascent ahead of a mid to upper-level
shortwave spoke advancing into southeastern OR (related to a large
closed low centered over CA/NV), will maintain areas of
thunderstorms as they continue to advance toward the north and
west within a broken axis. Embedded stronger cores within this
convective axis will be capable of producing 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain in an hour or two, resulting in isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding. This threat will be greatest where heavy rain
overlaps with urban locations, sensitive burn scars or otherwise
locally sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7wtmhWdR1qrm0Le6723KvtMvEqdLZ2gpzeoNRb5GleYP5qq5r1ENBHO-xHcBRxQAnk92=
RkggVYsKppa9_VqPeus9l5s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON   48651699 48421627 47831569 47021552 46101625=20
            45171702 44861888 44682017 44032116 43992185=20
            44402206 45452197 46742136 47912036 48511839=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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