BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 29 May 2026 05:55:07 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 290555 SWODY1 SPC AC 290553 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low over central CA with a subtropic jet emanating out of Baja CA into the southern Rockies. Over the next 24 hours both of these features will migrate east/northeast into the central and southern High Plains. Despite some weakening of the upper wave, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains where low-level moisture is gradually increasing within a weak east/southeasterly flow regime. The combination of modest broad-scale ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear atop a moistening low-level air mass should support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during and after peak heating from southern TX northward across the southern Plains and into parts of the central High Plains. Elsewhere, orographic ascent within the northern Rockies will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few severe storms. A migratory upper trough over the central CONUS will continue to support scattered, but weak, thunderstorms across the OH Valley and Southeast states this afternoon. ...Southern Plains and central High Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon across western TX into eastern CO along a modestly deepening lee surface trough where ascent should be focused and mixed-layer inhibition minimized. Slightly stronger synoptic ascent across the southern High Plains should promote higher thunderstorm coverage across western TX/TX Panhandle region with more isolated coverage with northward extent. 15% wind probabilities were introduced across portions of western TX to reflect the potential for higher storm coverage. Across both the southern and central High Plains warm low-level conditions/deep boundary-layer mixing combined with weak flow within the lowest 1-3 km will likely promote outflow dominant storms with an attendant threat for severe gusts. Stronger mid-level flow across western TX may support a more prolonged severe threat, and possibly a few transient supercells capable of large hail and/or organized bands capable of gusts upwards of 75 mph. Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest OK and western KS. ...Northern Rockies/Montana... Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the Canadian border. ...Southern Utah... 5% wind probabilities were introduced across southern to southeast UT where weak, high-based convection may support a few strong to severe dry downbursts. Although latest CAM ensemble guidance depicts scant buoyancy (MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg) and very transient convection, a very deep boundary layer (LCL values upwards of 3 km) featuring 25-35 knot flow will likely promote sporadic strong to severe wind gusts. ..Moore/Marsh.. 05/29/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]