BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Fri, 29 May 2026 10:55:03 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 291053
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-291452-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...northern Arkansas, southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291052Z - 291452Z

Summary...Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms were
drifting slowly northward while producing locally heavy rainfall.=20
The combination of wet grounds from yesterday's rainfall and
locally sensitive terrain poses an isolated flash flood risk this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered convection was drifting north-northwestward
across the discussion area within a distinct warm-advection
regime.  The convection was embedded in an environment
characterized by 1.8 inch PW values, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, and
low-level confluence - supporting occasionally strong updrafts.=20
Most cells exhibited enough forward speed to keep rain rates at
around 1 inch/hr or lower, though a few spots where local
training/backbuilding has increased rain rates to near FFG --
particularly near Pope County/Russellville, AR over the past hour.
 Occasional, yet isolated, flash flood potential will exist in
this regime in the near term.

Models suggest that ongoing activity will probably experience a
decreasing trend in convective coverage through the morning as
low-level flow/confluence decreases.  Flash flood potential will
probably peak over the next couple hours, before decreasing
gradually through 14Z/9a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!__nBIANuDzfKkZyT0i-iNXyOhKrlv6eY-yQC0EyjO2bBQO20_hGB-7ahnCHTf2RmnT2y=
05ztim2FXaNSILOVTvVMdlc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38579243 37529122 36189091 34869145 34369263=20
            35729413 37539432 38489421=20

=3D =3D =3D
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