BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Fri, 29 May 2026 18:01:45 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 291801
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, western
Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291800Z - 300000Z

Summary...Afternoon heating has resulted in a recent increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area, with flash
flooding possible on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Surface heating across much of Arkansas and the
presence of modest ascent aloft associated with an overhead
mid-level trough has resulted in renewed development of
thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.  The environment
supporting thunderstorm activity remains moist (1.7+ inch PW
values), with surface heating now fostering 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
- highest across Arkansas.  Shear/steering flow aloft is weak,
resulting in slow-moving convection and locally heavy rain rates.=20
MRMS has already estimated spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates near
some storms.  Additionally, rainfall was occurring in/near areas
that experienced heavy rain and flash flood impacts yesterday
between Little Rock and Harrison.  FFG thresholds are low along
this axis, and may be readily exceeded at times given the
aforementioned regime.

Convective coverage will continue to expand gradually with time,
although eventually, widespread convective overturning should
result in a gradual lessening of convective (and flash flood) risk
toward evening/00Z.  In the meantime, areas of flash flooding are
possible on at least an isolated basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8LRCiP-9W9fURQ-J9ksDi5qmMelq9TNwp_fGy2sbVpEbaMLub6mZoiemghWOSGwM6Gry=
qkdKDZwMwAP03n-fGCLoPwk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38739267 38449204 37769007 36708922 35488906=20
            33419095 33939255 34629341 36529399 38159422=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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