BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Fri, 29 May 2026 18:16:45 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 291816
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300015-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0273
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...portions of Georgia
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 291815Z - 300015Z
Summary...Strong convection has focused along a subtle confluence
zone extending from Atlanta to Macon to Brunswick. Convection
along this axis is slow-moving, with heavy rainfall potentially
leading to a few instances of flash flooding.
Discussion...Strong surface heating along a weak low-level
confluence zone from Atlanta to Macon to Brunswick has allowed for
strong thunderstorms to develop and intensify over the past couple
hours. The storms are in a very weakly sheared environment, with
2 inch PW values, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and slow movement encouraging
local areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates especially from Macon
southeastward. These rates were falling on areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds (locally lower near Atlanta and northwestern
Georgia). The overall regime supports areas of isolated instances
of flash flooding - especially in/near low-lying and sensitive
locales.
With time and as thunderstorms mature, convective coverage will
expand, with spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates becoming more common.=20
Flash flooding will also become more of a concern given the slow
storm movement and tendency for local mergers.=20
Much of this activity will be diurnally driven, with any weakening
trend of convection dictated by any 1) loss of surface insolation
and 2) degree of convective overturning/stabilization. Flash
flood potential will exist through 00Z/8p eastern on an isolated
to scattered basis.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8H_qwgSQlJffD4J_iFU1VooC1N3PcFsj1inwI--wTbOOaoxJbpPYzi3rXNB8wLKhiTU6=
9oFY5vSUWcwSXsH0whRxiow$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34728483 34038364 33478230 32868147 31878111=20
30948145 30808229 31508430 32678510 34538545=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
=3D =3D =3D
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