BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 29 May 2026 19:58:47 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 291958 SWODY1 SPC AC 291956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are still expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas into northern Oklahoma. More isolated severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The biggest change made to the outlook was to extend 15 percent wind and hail probabilities (hence the Slight risk) farther east into OK. Though speed and directional shear are not expected to be overly abundant, some hodograph curvature and elongation, amid 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support multicells and transient supercells capable of producing severe wind and hail (with a few stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Otherwise, more minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 05/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/ ...Southern Plains... Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK. Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may increase as this happens. ...Northeast CO/Northwest KS... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado. ...MT... A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]