BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0894
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Fri, 29 May 2026 20:17:10 +0000
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ACUS11 KWNS 292017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292016=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Western/northern OK into parts of the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles and extreme southern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292016Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will be possible from late
afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Morning convection across parts of northern/central OK
has diminished this afternoon, with relatively strong heating and
destabilization underway across parts of western and northern OK. A
surface confluence zone extends from central into northwest OK, with
the strongest heating noted to the south of this zone across
west-central/southwest OK, and relatively backed low-level flow
observed near/north of this zone. As MLCINH weakens and a compact
midlevel shortwave trough moves from the TX Panhandle into northern
OK, at least isolated storm development will be possible by 4-6 PM
CDT, with some increase in coverage expected into the evening.=20

Moderate to strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts as storms
mature from late afternoon into the evening. Mid/upper-level flow is
currently rather weak, though some increase is expected into early
evening. Effective shear will be maximized where surface winds
remain backed, and a supercell or two could evolve with time, with a
threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a brief tornado. Outflow consolidation may eventually lead
to a corridor of somewhat greater severe-wind threat across northern
OK and far southern KS. Watch issuance is possible across parts of
the region later this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ChT6DcXe7gvKPyq3kqc7TUx6NsufIYWvz-eOKl1N40KJRu2cvxfQYU49E-LGmwt6Io8wemjf=
Jlr9iSDSqdjCoNRbWc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35569814 35339875 35219945 35349980 35550018 36270058
            36890080 37209922 37259809 37209717 36729683 36429676
            36059673 35919704 35779764 35569814=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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