BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 01:01:12 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 300101 SWODY1 SPC AC 300059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and severe winds will linger across the central and southern Plains through the late evening hours before diminishing by early morning. More isolated severe thunderstorms will also remain possible across portion of north-central Montana through late evening. ...Synopsis... Regional radar mosaics show widely scattered convection from northwest KS into north-central OK and across portions of western Texas. Based on latest GOES imagery and recent RAP upper-air analyses, modest diffluence aloft associated with the left-exit region of a subtropical jet resides across northern OK/KS and should continue to promote thunderstorm development across this region over the next several hours. Further northwest across Montana, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain with little forward motion owing to weak mid-level winds. Across both regions, thunderstorms will likely persist into the late evening hours with some threat for severe gusts and perhaps sporadic large hail. ...Kansas/northern Oklahoma... New convection continues to develop across northwest to south-central KS within the left-exit region of the upper jet and within a zone of modest isentropic ascent focused near 850 mb. Through the evening, additional thunderstorm development appears likely as the nocturnal low-level jet gradually strengthens. However, regional VWPs depict diminishing mid-level flow with northward extent across KS, and dewpoint depressions on the order of 20-30 F coupled with weak low-level winds are favoring outflow dominant convection with transient organization. Consequently, the potential for a prolonged or intense severe threat across any one corridor of the region appears limited - especially heading into the late evening hours as nocturnal cooling/stabilization becomes more pronounced. Nonetheless, severe gusts, and perhaps very sporadic large hail, will remain possible with this activity for the next several hours as it spreads east/northeast. 5% hail/wind probabilities were expanded to account for this potential through 04-06 UTC. ...Western Texas... Thunderstorm coverage has failed to materialize as expected thus far across much of western TX, though a few thunderstorm clusters are noted near the Amarillo, TX area, as is percolating convection near Fort Stockton, TX. Given the dearth of more widespread convection - likely owing to very weak forcing for ascent and the stabilizing influence of residual cloud cover - confidence in the severe threat through late evening is low. However, 00 UTC RAOBs and latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates continue to show an environment supportive of organized convection, and recent high-res guidance hints at further development between the I-10 and I-20 corridors through roughly 04 UTC. The Slight risk has been bifurcated to highlight these two corridors downstream of ongoing and/or developing intense convection. ...Montana... Convection continues to percolated across north-central MT with MRMS imagery showing occasional periods of intensification to severe limits with the deeper, more robust convective cores. Weak flow below 5 km AGL is likely contributing to the slow storm motions and poor organization, but as hinted by recent trends, convection that can become sufficiently deep may be influenced by stronger flow above 5 km and pose a brief threat for large hail and severe winds. In general, this threat should wane through the late evening hours. ..Moore.. 05/30/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]