BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 01:51:32 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 300151
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300730-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
950 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...western GA into far eastern AL, eastern TN and
far western NC
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 300149Z - 300730Z
Summary...Flash flood potential will linger across portions of
eastern AL/western GA into portions of the TN Valley and southern
Appalachians through 0730Z. Slow movement of cells will support
potential for localized hourly rainfall of 1 to 3+ inches.
Discussion...0130Z radar imagery showed a few lingering showers
and thunderstorms over west-central and northeastern GA with
MRMS-estimated hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches on a very isolated
basis. Much of central GA has been worked over by earlier
convection, reducing available instability and increasing low
level inhibition, limiting near term concerns for additional heavy
rain. However, the western portion of GA into eastern AL remained
unstable with ~1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE via 01Z SPC mesoanalysis
data with little to no inhibition. The approach of a mid to
upper-level trough from the west may provide forcing for the
development of additional showers/thunderstorms, possibly
increasing in the 03-06Z time frame. The reflection of the ongoing
ascent ahead of the upper trough was represented by a small
cluster of weakening thunderstorms over south-central AL as of
0130Z.
Farther north, radar imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown an
expansion in the coverage of showers/thunderstorms over eastern
TN. A relative max in MLCAPE resided over the region with 500-1500
J/kg via the 01Z SPC mesoanalysis. While shear was lacking for
storm organization, deeper layer mean winds were weak at less than
10 kt from the southwest which will allow for 1 to 2+ inch
rainfall (in excess of area FFG), especially where upstream
development occurs.
Moisture across the region was high with PWs ranging from 2.2
inches over south-central GA (near a stationary front) to 1.6
inches in eastern TN. Earlier observed gauge reports in portions
of GA showed 3 to 3.5 inches in an hour, a testament to the very
moist and efficient airmass in place over the region. The weak
steering flow over AL/GA/TN will be supportive of slow moving
cells with the potential for backbuilding/upstream development,
supportive of isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall.
Otto
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_eq5lwqiNdKtOJDzPBGVgwcZ75ZIs_t_eMwu4KMYFIKmMus9vJkRqpejISF1SyKBDNjH=
cNJ-gIZANzq3t31g5FCw2BE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...OHX...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36478321 36288234 35778243 35488300 35288326=20
34938352 34408363 32978332 32228304 31658357=20
31608460 31818527 32288553 33138580 34108578=20
35028550 35798499 36398402=20
=3D =3D =3D
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