BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sat, 30 May 2026 04:08:13 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 300408
FFGMPD
MTZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300406Z - 300700Z

SUMMARY...A nearly stationary line of storms is producing 2.5
in/hour rainfall rates. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary line of storms caught on a trough
near a surface low over eastern Montana is producing rainfall
rates to 2 inches per hour on the county line between Valley and
Phillips Counties. The outflow boundary has pushed well east of
the storms, and should eventually work to cut off the inflow,
however due to the proximity of a low level jet, the storms have
been maintaining themselves just west of Glasgow. 1-hourly flash
flood guidance shows 1 hour amounts are between 1.25 and 1.5
inches in the area of the storms, so ongoing rainfall is exceeding
those amounts.

High-resolution guidance suggests that as the storms use up the
instability, which is over 1,500 J/kg in SBCAPE and near 2,000
J/kg in MUCAPE, the storms should detach from the trough, weaken,
and push north into Canada. It should be noted that the guidance
generally struggles with these kinds of mesoscale features. In
this case, given the evident outflow boundary outracing the storms
now by tens of miles, it appears likely that the storms' inflow
should soon be cut off, resulting in weakening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8q5Gd4lJX1JfxFZFqrpIuy-gyj2i10k8eeGy3LYXI8ki01aW-9iHW7TIQefqIL2hyJCd=
V9f2iECWUgzPU4WtMaS_q8E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   49100644 49060599 48720571 48220575 47850617=20
            47760666 47480704 47320718 47360770 47590787=20
            47870780 48220782 48650781 49040772=20

=3D =3D =3D
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