BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 12:27:47 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 301227 SWODY1 SPC AC 301225 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...NE Panhandle into the northern High Plains... A mid-level trough along the UT/CO border will migrate slowly northeast with a belt of 20-40 kt cyclonic 500-mb flow wrapping cyclonically through the base of the trough into the NE Panhandle and Black Hills. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface low pressure/lee trough will focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. The western part of a moisture plume extending from the southern Great Plains northward into western NE/SD will feature 50s to lower 60 F dewpoints. Strong heating and large-scale ascent will combine to weaken the capping inversion and result in widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Slightly stronger deep-layer shear across NE will favor a mix of supercells and multicells with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms through the mid evening as this activity probably grows upscale into a linear cluster or two. ...NE-KS and into OK-TX... Models continue to show a sharp dryline across western/central KS, western OK, and into west TX by late afternoon. Main lobe of forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough will likely glance the northwestern quadrant of KS into NE. Surface mesoanalysis this morning shows a low over northeast CO near AKO and an effective outflow boundary draped east along I-70 in north-central KS. North of the boundary, easterly surface winds will contribute to maintaining moist upslope flow. Ample heating in wake of early morning convection and an increasingly rich moisture plume arcing from north-central OK into southwest NE, will favor a very unstable airmass developing by mid-late afternoon (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding low-level hodographs due to model spread (e.g., RAP and HRRR time-lagged depictions favoring more supercells vs. NAM with less favorable hodographs and indicative of more multicellular structures). Furthermore, effective shear is forecast to be only 25-35 knots and will likely straddle the multicell-supercell spectrum. Where slightly stronger shear and some enlargement of clockwise-curved hodographs are currently expected, it is where supercells are more probable and the risk for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are increasingly possible. Have opted to include a 5-percent tornado risk over north-central KS into southwest NE, with this region being located north of this morning's west-east boundary and in closer proximity to the upper wave. Farther south, lower storm coverage (isolated) is expected into OK and more sparse and widely spaced activity farther south along the dryline in parts of west TX. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with these storms. ...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas... A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely within this corridor. Models show large SBCAPE (3000 J/kg) and adequate deep-layer shear for some storm organization. A few stronger cells may be capable of large hail and perhaps strong/severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Kerr.. 05/30/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]