BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 15:40:26 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
MTZ000-302138-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...portions of Montana
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 301538Z - 302138Z
Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage while
migrating toward central Montana. These trends will continue for
several hours, posing a risk of flash flooding through 21Z/2p
mountain time.
Discussion...Areas of surface heating have led to sufficient
destabilization (areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) for scattered
thunderstorm activity from west of Jordan to east of Billings and
eastward along the MT/WY border region. The storms were migrating
slowly westward at around 10-15 knots due to easterly steering
flow on the norther periphery of a distinct mid/upper low near
northeastern UT. Northeasterly low-level trajectories were aiding
in upslope/subtle orographic ascent across the discussion area,
while low 60s F dewpoints and 1+ inch PW values were supporting
heavy rainfall beneath persistent and locally backbuilding
convection. Rain rates were peaking at around 1 inch/hr per MRMS,
which 1) isn't surprising given the regime and 2) approaching FFG
thresholds especially closer to central Montana.
With time, continued insolation/destabilization within the
low-level upslope regime across eastern Montana will continue to
support a gradual expansion of convective coverage. Storms could
become numerous after 18Z/11a mountain time, with continued areas
of 1 inch/hr rates exceeding FFG especially across central
Montana. Lighter rain rates along I-90 west of Billings, along
I-15 through Helena and Great Falls, and across northern Montana
near Glasgow could also cause runoff issues given low FFG
thresholds in those areas. Flash flooding is expected in several
areas today.
Cook
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7OW31X31s4WnAYzd8HPTbWxtzD6kqGAZA_JPLx9KvErdiNj4Ux8GgekJPeGr1w5wPOB2=
1Ajj29GfXVrFPFrHCpkAjoI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...MSO...TFX...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...
LAT...LON 48991242 48970930 48820679 48040625 46830571=20
45710501 45040534 45000878 45041107 45531216=20
46821309 48731333=20
=3D =3D =3D
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