BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 19:57:48 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 301957 SWODY1 SPC AC 301956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75 mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the 18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings) centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/ ...Central KS into OK... A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the primary concern. Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer, promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. ...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle... Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]