BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sat, 30 May 2026 20:32:29 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 302032
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310030-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 302030Z - 310030Z
SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorm clusters will continue to track
east-southeast across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri
through early evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr may yield
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making isolated flash flooding
possible.
DISCUSSION...Animated satellite and regional radar imagery show an
expanding axis of convective clusters stretching across southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri. These clusters have recently
exhibited rapidly cooling cloud tops, signaling robust updraft
strength and active vertical development. Supported by a pooling
moisture environment (PWATs climbing toward 1.4?1.6 inches) and
moderate diurnal destabilization, these storms are highly
efficient rainfall producers, with recent MRMS data estimating
localized rates of 1 to 2 in/hr.
The kinematic environment is characterized by weak mid-level
steering flow and small upwind propagation vectors, leading to
slow, grinding storm motions toward the east-southeast. While
high-resolution model guidance exhibits typical summer spatial
discrepancies, with the RRFS aggressively favoring 2 to 4 inch
localized pockets through 00Z and the HRRR taking a more
conservative 1 to 2 inch approach, the current observational trend
strongly supports the higher-end rainfall potential where cells
manage to cluster or briefly train.
Given the somewhat moist antecedent soil environment indicated by
recent NASA SPoRT soil moisture data, infiltration capacities are
moderately reduced. While a widespread event is not anticipated
due to the lack of strong synoptic forcing, these slow-moving 1 to
2 in/hr rates will be capable of producing isolated short-term
flash flooding, primarily concentrated across localized low-lying
areas, small creeks, and vulnerable urban intersections.
Orrison
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6fssWYIZLBkibj5b4UX5CVsTI0uo5AKNv1vlrjdUfAz9pK7ZKIwq_WrN4vsrUmOhG4e4=
sEbK-j4fxEbRFdipxU57RGs$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38109564 38099400 37739308 37159290 36769326=20
36699437 37169581 37769603=20
=3D =3D =3D
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