BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sat, 30 May 2026 23:00:47 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 302300
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southeast Wyoming...Western
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302259Z - 310330Z

SUMMARY...A north-south axis of locally training thunderstorms
along the intersection of the WY/CO/NE borders will continue to
produce rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr this evening. Localized
totals of 2 to 3+ inches are possible, which may lead to isolated
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Real-time satellite and radar observations depict a
highly organized, north-south oriented axis of convection slowly
advancing northeastward across the western High Plains. GOES-E IR
imagery shows a steady expansion of cooling convective tops,
indicative of robust, sustained updrafts. This activity is being
poorly handled by nearly all numerical model guidance but is
well-supported by observational trends. Water vapor imagery shows
strong mid-level forcing and ascent associated with an upper-level
low spinning over Wyoming and a southward extension of shortwave
energy ejecting out near the base of it.

At the surface, an enhanced leeside trough is interacting with a
strong instability gradient. Low-level easterly flow is actively
advecting moist and unstable air westward into an inverted trough
situated just north of a surface low over far northeast Colorado.
This focused low-level convergence is allowing cells to
continuously regenerate and locally train along the boundary. With
high moisture efficiency, these cells are producing
radar-estimated rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr.

Antecedent conditions across this portion of the High Plains are
notably dry, which will act as a significant mitigating factor
against flash flooding. However, given the persistence of the
convection and orientation relative to the steering flow,
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches are achievable through
mid-evening. Where these high rates persist over complex terrain
features or localized urban footprints, rapid runoff and isolated
flash flooding will remain possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!53QY7tuZ5YJ_a9aarJ3Roz32X6mVEyXkgYHYL8Phm4v7E-eYZyA-1ZaHPG4JwHYL2Gs5=
nWWm-lDCTVHbqqBzbc-plc4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   42880372 42680296 41900206 41160164 40330156=20
            39740193 39320269 39160364 39350419 39750451=20
            40650488 41200505 42040513 42630478 42860425=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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