BBS:      TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto:  MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
De:       COD Weather Processor
Data:     Sun, 31 May 2026 05:29:29 +0000
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AWUS01 KWNH 310529
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-311000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0283
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas through Southwest iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310527Z - 311000Z

SUMMARY...Several areas of convection have developed from
northeastern Kansas through Southwestern Iowa. Backbuilding in
Kansas and nearly stationary movement in Iowa could lead to areas
of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Multiple lines of storms have formed from
north-central Kansas through Southwestern Iowa this evening.
Starting with Kansas, a nearly stationary line of storms has been
backbuilding into abundant moisture advection from the south.
These storms are producing rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour.
Due to the efficient backbuilding, any cells that advect off to
the northeast are quickly replaced with new ones, resulting in
effectively stationary storms. SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs to
around 1.5 inches with 850 mb winds advecting the moisture of
25-35 kts, which should support the storms for several more hours.

Meanwhile a separate line of storms has developed across the
southwestern corner of Iowa, and is expanding northwestward to
just north of Omaha. These storms are nearly stationary as well,
so hourly rainfall rates with those cells are also exceeding 2
inches. PWATs are higher here, around 1.7 inches.

High-resolution guidance are struggling to resolve these mesoscale
features, but there is decent agreement that the storms over
Kansas should begin to move eastward with time. Additional storms
are likely to form to the east of/in advance of these lines of
storms, resulting in multiple clusters of storms generally
following each other, resulting in an extended period of time of
heavy rainfall from Topeka through into Kansas City/St Joseph in
the next few hours. FFG values are generally around 1.5 inches/1
hr as a ballpark average, and with multiple cells across the area
now producing 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, the resulting flash
flooding threat is likely to continue.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5H42mv9rumMQqQrM-thxegRcP73RcyfinRsYmKbHVlgliqoROz5vwCwmZr_K2_b6CuoN=
P6MPpUSNugnk_Dtddmeu_9U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   42349576 41909502 41429477 40789441 40209410=20
            39769398 38679432 38289493 38179557 38339712=20
            38689831 39159894 39189906 39889915 41309820=20
            42269683=20

=3D =3D =3D
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