BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 31 May 2026 06:05:25 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 310605 SWODY1 SPC AC 310603 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...Kansas/Missouri... Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg). Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak upper-level flow. Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical Slight would be warranted. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy. ...Nebraska into the Dakotas... Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail. ..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]