BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 31 May 2026 15:58:33 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 311558 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1158 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun May 31 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF=20 MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS, CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND THE SOUTHEAST=20 UNITED STATES... Missouri... Raised a Slight Risk for central Missouri. Ongoing progressive activity across a stationary front is=20 generally producing 1-2" rainfall over central Missouri. 12Z=20 guidance is in pretty good agreement on an MCS tracking over=20 Missouri late tonight. That should be fairly progressive as well,=20 but veering of the low level flow may make for inflow parallel to=20 the orientation and increased duration overnight. Much of this area has lower FFG (generally 2"/3hr), so the combination of these two=20 rounds could cause scattered flash flooding. Will need to monitor=20 CAMs/boundaries for further details to this overnight activity. The RRFS is hotter than other models as usual, but the 12Z is notable=20 a broader span of coverage from the KC metro to the StL metro, so=20 either of those could be in greater play tonight and warrant a=20 Slight expansion to them. Montana to the Black Hills...=20 Maintained the Slight Risk for portions of Montana and nearby=20 Wyoming and the far western Dakotas, now including more of the Black Hills. Rainfall intensity will remain lower than yesterday,=20 but an additional 1-2" brings flooding concerns, especially where the 3hr FFG is below 1.5" in north-central MT and western SD. Southeast US... Maintained the Slight Risk along a cold front over southern=20 GA/northern FL into southeast AL given agreement of 12Z CAM=20 guidance focusing 1-3"+ QPF on this area. PW rises from 2 to 2.25"=20 and MLCAPE should reach 2000 J/kg this afternoon supporting heavy=20 rain. Repeating activity is expected with 20kt Wly deep layer flow=20 keeping activity alive along the frontal forcing. Activity over the eastern FL peninsula will need to be monitored. As of now the Marginal Risk was expanded over Cape Canaveral on account of sea breeze based convection possibly getting held up there. The focus may be just west of Miami, but will continue to monitor. Elsewhere...trimmed the broad Marginal Risk where possible including in eastern MS and western KY. Expanded east a bit in MN/IA and southeastern KY given 12Z consensus. Frontal and low levels boundaries will provide some focus in the Gulf-sourced moisture plume and the broad pool of instability. Jackson Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS... Northern Rockies... Introduced a Marginal Risk area in the northern Rockies where moisture/precipitation lingers as a slow moving mid- and upper- level system pulls away. The concern is not so much for rainfall intensity at this point but for the cumulative effect of the additional rain on top of what has fallen in the previous few days. The concern is also fairly limited in terms of duration as rainfall does come to an end during the middle- to latter-part of the period. Western High Plains... Also introduced a Marginal Risk area mainly in the western portion of Kansas/Nebraska as an axis of low level moisture begins to return northward during the day. Placement of the QPF and any associated risk of excessive rainfall remains somewhat tenuous. Concern is that the instability should be enough that the QPF amounts approaching or exceeding 2 inches from the UKMET/NAM and GFS would be delivered quickly. A Southeast US... Portions of the Mid-South/Southeast may also be at-risk for Excessive Rainfall, but guidance remains murky on where storms will initiate. Given these reasons, the Day 2 ERO remains free of risk areas for the time being. Mullinax/Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND A SMALL PORTION OF WEST TEXAS... A plume of Gulf-sourced moisture will be drawn northward into the southern Rockies/drifting east over the southern High Plains/west Texas to maintain a Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall on Tuesday into Tuesday night from portions of New Mexico into west Texas. Farther north...warm moist air will advect along a low level convergence zone with early June heating that has the potential for locally heavy rainfall over portions of the western High Plains into the Dakotas. Bann Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ymt8JEilN9FzXPn-rMFVf3zsl3CYXiqobx09aCDIx1s= I2wDmU0S7q7pE5YqYvMZDfOeRkFvkadA4bMXJgHzcZUn1xc$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ymt8JEilN9FzXPn-rMFVf3zsl3CYXiqobx09aCDIx1s= I2wDmU0S7q7pE5YqYvMZDfOeRkFvkadA4bMXJgHzVYSVTtY$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ymt8JEilN9FzXPn-rMFVf3zsl3CYXiqobx09aCDIx1s= I2wDmU0S7q7pE5YqYvMZDfOeRkFvkadA4bMXJgHzFfx-OaY$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]