BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 14 Mar 2026 16:18:33 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass will support the development of moderate instability through the afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest concentration of convection is expected. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment should preclude organized severe thunderstorms. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE (generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the warm front into MN/WI. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/14/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]