BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 14 Mar 2026 17:32:34 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will amplify across the central states on Sunday and become centered from WI to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Monday. Associated surface cyclone will track from the IA/MO border to Lower MI, deepening Sunday evening/night. As this occurs, attendant cold front will accelerate eastward across the Mid-MS to the OH Valleys. Trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast through Monday morning. Primary changes with the level 3-ENH risk are to include a 10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and addition of 15-percent and CIG1 hail areas. Expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risk areas has occurred over the Southeast for mainly the 06-12Z period Monday. Uncertainty is greatest on the western extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment. ...South-Central/Southeast States to the Midwest... In the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the Mid/Upper MS Valley, midday convective development should occur along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks. This activity may initially remain shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards the Ark-La-Tex and the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley. By late afternoon, an extensively long QLCS should become established from IL south-southwestward. Semi-discrete supercell development appears most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening warm/moist conveyor. This should support potential for large hail and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed within the broader QLCS during the evening. This scenario should also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the Mid-South to TN Valley. Despite this aspect, substantial strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially across the Mid-South vicinity and expanding to the OH to TN Valleys, will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths through the evening. On Sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains minimal. But the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward in the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Farther south, there are increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective development across the central to northeast Gulf Coast vicinity early Monday morning. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive QLCS. This should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained tornado potential. Otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored from at least the FL Panhandle to the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 03/14/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]