BBS: TELESC.NET.BR
Assunto: MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240
De: COD Weather Processor
Data: Sun, 15 Mar 2026 04:56:09 +0000
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ACUS11 KWNS 150456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150455=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-151000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Areas affected...Far northwest Iowa...southern Minnesota...and
central Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow=20
Valid 150455Z - 151000Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow banding will become more prominent in the
coming hours across extreme northwest Iowa, southern Minnesota, and
into central Wisconsin. Snowfall rates will likely exceed 2 inches
per hour within a narrow band across the region.
DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclone is apparent in surface
observations over the central Plains as a prominent upper-level jet
continues to push southeast. Recent VWP observations across the
eastern Plains have shown a pronounced increase in low-level winds
(upwards of 50-60 knots at 1 km AGL) within the developing warm
conveyor belt of the emerging cyclone. Concurrently, an increase in
precipitation is noted from southwest NE into southeast SD as the
strengthening low-level winds augment isentropic ascent as well as
low to mid-level frontogenesis.=20
In the coming hours, strong isentropic ascent and more focused lift
within the frontogenetical circulation between 850-700 mb will shift
east/northeast into southern MN and central WI as the surface
cyclone begins to migrate east/northeast. Ascent through a deep
layer, including through a somewhat shallow dendritic growth zone,
will support a broad swath of heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1
inch/hour.=20
A combination of focused ascent within a frontogenetical 700 mb
deformation zone and periodic convective augmentation (8.8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates were noted in an upstream 00z OAX sounding and
should be advecting into the southern flank of the deformation zone)
will likely result in a narrow corridor of snowfall rates between
2-3 inches/hour. Based on a consensus of recent guidance, this band
will most likely emerge across southern MN into central WI during
the 07-11 UTC time frame and will likely persist well into the
mid-morning hours.
..Moore.. 03/15/2026
...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8cWbGjisvfzmlosNuIF-CTvcZRPg93W5_rS7QY984PEzL93lmatRec-xQKQ03Zm8sDNbFRgMG=
8dACV-ktf_71HmARgQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 45338876 45318807 45178757 45028729 44778720 44338741
44068759 44078813 44149025 44169073 44049130 43519322
43169443 43079499 43159547 43409578 43699585 43969558
44469481 44809414 45149324 45339221 45389097 45338876=20
=3D =3D =3D
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