BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sun, 15 Mar 2026 12:35:08 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 151235 SWODY1 SPC AC 151233 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe wind gusts may accompany a developing squall line across and east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon into this evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into Mid South and Gulf Coast regions. ...Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An active severe weather event is expected to occur this afternoon through tonight over a large part of the east-central CONUS. Water vapor imagery confirms a powerful shortwave trough is amplifying over the central Plains this morning, with a deep surface low tracking from northern MO into Lower MI during this forecast period. Very strong southerly low-level winds (50-75 knots at 850mb) in the warm sector will transport 50s surface dewpoints rapidly northward, resulting in widespread marginal to moderate CAPE values from Lower MI to the Gulf coast. Current indications are that thunderstorms will begin increasing in coverage and intensity around midday as a strong cold front surges into the region. The initial storms over AR/MO will track into an environment quite favorable for supercell structures and tornadoes - but the intense linear forcing along the front, and weak capping ahead of the front may short-circuit discrete cell formation and mesocyclone development. Nevertheless, a conditional risk of significant tornadoes will exist through at least early evening. There will be an increasing risk of widespread damaging winds and occasional embedded tornadoes along the squall line/cold front as it sweeps eastward into the OH and TN Valleys during the late afternoon and evening. Extremely strong winds just above the surface will allow deep-convective elements to produce severe winds. This threat may persist much of the night, spreading as far east as eastern KY/TN and much of GA by 16/12z. Earlier model runs suggested the development of a more favorable environment for supercells and tornadoes late tonight over parts of AL/GA/FL. More recent model solutions have backed off from that scenario, but will keep the ENH for now and re-evaluate with 12z model cycle. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/15/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]