BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:45:15 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 160045 SWODY1 SPC AC 160043 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states. ...01Z Update... The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish. Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]