BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 16 Mar 2026 16:30:22 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 161630 SWODY1 SPC AC 161628 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON D.C. AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms through this evening will yield potential for scattered to widespread damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion. Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer destabilization over eastern NY into New England. In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line. Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity through this evening. ...GA/FL... Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region, there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 03/16/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]